You are very kind. Today for me is no day of celebration. I didn’t like the Syrian regime, but we also need to be honest about the revenge coming the Alawites way now.
Another great essay, thanks Daniel. My first reaction to the Syria news was, "is this a devil you know situation". Change is never easy, let's hope the outcome is better this time around.
A brilliant article, Daniel that is well-worth the price of admission! The Assad family’s 50-year reign in power is finally at its end. But that doesn’t mean everything all of a sudden is going to get better, for now a new civil war is going to likely begin amongst the rebels themselves or a Jihadist dictatorship hostile to the United States, the West and Israel will plant its roots in the ground and stay for decades to come slaughtering Syria’s religious minorities including the poor Alawites. The United States and the West made a serious blunder when they didn’t get involved in the Syrian Civil War soon enough. As a result, by the time we got there all the true moderate rebels really interested in building a liberal democracy in Syria were dead. Barack Obama will forever bear the burden of being responsible for this, one of the biggest foreign policy disasters in the Middle East. I don’t think America and the West’s involvement was a total failure we did help get rid of Assad and defeated ISIS. But ultimately a free and democratic Syria was NOT in the cards. Returning to the subject of the article (please excuse that digression), the Alawites indeed could have chosen a different way forward. They’ve could’ve assisted Syria’s minorities in the upbuilding the new state after independence, they could have assisted the Kurds, they could have joined forces with the Druze, etc. But they didn’t they built a brutal dictatorship under Hafez Al-Assad and later his son Bashar that lasted for five decades. The Assads spied on, jailed, tortured, and murdered their own people with impunity and attacked Israel in 1948, 1967 and 1973. This is why it’s a good thing Israel’s got the Golan Heights! The Alawites reigned supreme over Sunni and Shi’ia Muslims, the Druze and the Kurds. They became no different than their Arab Muslim neighbors. Not to mention the brutal Apartheid state they have against Palestinian refugees. Palestinian refugees living in Syria live in some of the worst poverty on Earth. The Alawites presided over all of this. Now the tables have turned. I shudder to think what will be done to Syria’s Alawite Christians now that Assad is gone and has fled to Russia. I too am questioning whether Assad really launched the chemical attacks, Daniel. He was a bad guy no doubt, but from what I’ve read about him I question whether he would ever go to those lengths given how lenient he was in comparison to other dictators. He strikes me not as a Hitler or Stalin but more like the Shah of Iran or France-Albert Rene of the Seychelles. I am beginning to wonder if it was perhaps the Jihadist rebels or ISIS who really launched the chemical attacks. Bashar Al-Assad to me seems like a gentleman who whatever his faults, couldn’t bring himself to quite be that brutal and sadistic. I’m praying for the Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and the Shi’ites. I think the Alawites in particular need to leave the country, I fear there is no future for them there. The Jihadists will genocide them if the world doesn’t take action. I call on Israel, the moderate Arab regimes and Latin America to open their doors to Alawite Christians! I also call on the UN to pass a resolution refusing any recognition of the new Jihadist regime and condemning the oppression of minority groups in Syria. It’s too bad the French didn’t stay in Syria longer. French colonialism in Syria should’ve continued for decades longer. If someday God willing, the Sunni Jihadists are toppled and a free democracy does emerge in Syria with religious freedom for all, France should open up charter cities all over the country and the new government should be under their tutelage. As for the Alawites, God protect them! I urge America, the West and Israel to take up their cause and call for their immediate resettlement!
An alternative take from an Israeli professor and intelligence officer would see Syria split into 4 autonomous cantons, much like Iraq divided into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish areas.
I look into Assad's eyes and I just don't see any hatred. He is no Hitler, Saddam or Gaddafi. I don’t know whether he was psychologically capable of personally ordering murder. I think he is at peace now.
Thank you. Wonderfully written. This reminds me why I pay for your Substack and not a newspaper subscription.
You are very kind. Today for me is no day of celebration. I didn’t like the Syrian regime, but we also need to be honest about the revenge coming the Alawites way now.
Indeed. I feel the same. In a different reality, things could have been different.
There are no winners in this mess. Assad had to go, but the instability to come will be ugly.
I’ve never seen a middle eastern strong man deposed and anything but a medieval caliphate fill the vacuum.
Thank you Daniel - a truly remarkable piece. It leads to deep thought......
Thank-you so much for the feedback Sylvan.
This is a perspective I've seen in zero corporate outlets or even blogs. Interesting!
Thank-you so much. I wish more people could see it.
Another great essay, thanks Daniel. My first reaction to the Syria news was, "is this a devil you know situation". Change is never easy, let's hope the outcome is better this time around.
Thanks Brad for the kind feedback.
A brilliant article, Daniel that is well-worth the price of admission! The Assad family’s 50-year reign in power is finally at its end. But that doesn’t mean everything all of a sudden is going to get better, for now a new civil war is going to likely begin amongst the rebels themselves or a Jihadist dictatorship hostile to the United States, the West and Israel will plant its roots in the ground and stay for decades to come slaughtering Syria’s religious minorities including the poor Alawites. The United States and the West made a serious blunder when they didn’t get involved in the Syrian Civil War soon enough. As a result, by the time we got there all the true moderate rebels really interested in building a liberal democracy in Syria were dead. Barack Obama will forever bear the burden of being responsible for this, one of the biggest foreign policy disasters in the Middle East. I don’t think America and the West’s involvement was a total failure we did help get rid of Assad and defeated ISIS. But ultimately a free and democratic Syria was NOT in the cards. Returning to the subject of the article (please excuse that digression), the Alawites indeed could have chosen a different way forward. They’ve could’ve assisted Syria’s minorities in the upbuilding the new state after independence, they could have assisted the Kurds, they could have joined forces with the Druze, etc. But they didn’t they built a brutal dictatorship under Hafez Al-Assad and later his son Bashar that lasted for five decades. The Assads spied on, jailed, tortured, and murdered their own people with impunity and attacked Israel in 1948, 1967 and 1973. This is why it’s a good thing Israel’s got the Golan Heights! The Alawites reigned supreme over Sunni and Shi’ia Muslims, the Druze and the Kurds. They became no different than their Arab Muslim neighbors. Not to mention the brutal Apartheid state they have against Palestinian refugees. Palestinian refugees living in Syria live in some of the worst poverty on Earth. The Alawites presided over all of this. Now the tables have turned. I shudder to think what will be done to Syria’s Alawite Christians now that Assad is gone and has fled to Russia. I too am questioning whether Assad really launched the chemical attacks, Daniel. He was a bad guy no doubt, but from what I’ve read about him I question whether he would ever go to those lengths given how lenient he was in comparison to other dictators. He strikes me not as a Hitler or Stalin but more like the Shah of Iran or France-Albert Rene of the Seychelles. I am beginning to wonder if it was perhaps the Jihadist rebels or ISIS who really launched the chemical attacks. Bashar Al-Assad to me seems like a gentleman who whatever his faults, couldn’t bring himself to quite be that brutal and sadistic. I’m praying for the Alawites, Kurds, Druze, and the Shi’ites. I think the Alawites in particular need to leave the country, I fear there is no future for them there. The Jihadists will genocide them if the world doesn’t take action. I call on Israel, the moderate Arab regimes and Latin America to open their doors to Alawite Christians! I also call on the UN to pass a resolution refusing any recognition of the new Jihadist regime and condemning the oppression of minority groups in Syria. It’s too bad the French didn’t stay in Syria longer. French colonialism in Syria should’ve continued for decades longer. If someday God willing, the Sunni Jihadists are toppled and a free democracy does emerge in Syria with religious freedom for all, France should open up charter cities all over the country and the new government should be under their tutelage. As for the Alawites, God protect them! I urge America, the West and Israel to take up their cause and call for their immediate resettlement!
An alternative take from an Israeli professor and intelligence officer would see Syria split into 4 autonomous cantons, much like Iraq divided into Shia, Sunni and Kurdish areas.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/with-assads-fall-the-possible-splintering-of-syria-buoys-hopes-for-a-new-middle-east/
I look into Assad's eyes and I just don't see any hatred. He is no Hitler, Saddam or Gaddafi. I don’t know whether he was psychologically capable of personally ordering murder. I think he is at peace now.